A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side are uncertain precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said the writer. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
McBride believes a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
